Eco-Economics: heat mapping & the future economic impact of climate change
A Cook County–specific forecast of what rising heat will cost the Chicago economy in health and productivity over the next 40 years and the case it makes for spending on mitigation today.
Climate change and global warming are rapidly altering our physical environment. Increased extreme weather events are reducing crop yields, labor productivity, and overall material wealth — yet many conventional economic models fail to include these massive, negative externalities.
How much will rising heat in the Cook County area cost the Chicago economy in health and productivity over the next 40 years?
Based on existing literature, we expect the increases in healthcare costs and diminished productivity caused by rising heat to outpace the costs of mitigative measures — by a margin large enough to make policy action undeniable.
We believe this analysis is necessary to convince policymakers to spend now on mitigative measures in Chicago, to avoid greater costs later.
A three-tier model, from climate data to dollars.
We're building an inclusive economic forecast that uses heat-related illness and death as a proxy for the systemic deadweight loss conventional models miss.
Hot-days projection
Take climate projection data and build a Cook County–specific forecast for the number of "hot days" (over 80°F) per year, out through 2050.
Heat wave simulation
Convert the hot-days count into a distribution of heat wave number and duration. Mortality and lost productivity both scale with consecutive hot days, not just totals.
Economic cost model
Apply an economic model to the heat wave distribution, converting projected health and productivity impacts into a dollar-denominated cost over time.
What we're aiming to produce
- Synthesize economic and health data in and around Cook County
- Build a refined economic forecast for Cook County out to 2050
- Compare the new forecast against conventional models to explain the scale of climatic externalities
- Lay a foundation to expand the model to more aspects of climate change
Funding, advisors, and partners
We're looking to work with organizations and individuals who can help us get this analysis to publication-ready rigor.
Milestones
Project infrastructure buildout
- Standardized folder structure across admin/data/code, meeting notes & presentations, and literature/analysis/reports
- Defined formats for articles, figures, tables, and report styling
Data aggregated & literature reviewed
- Core datasets pulled and organized
- Literature review synthesized to ground the model's assumptions
Data cleaned, visualized & first pitches made
- Data cleaned and standardized for initial modeling use
- First data visualizations produced
- Initial stakeholder pitches delivered
A weekly cadence, not a semester project.
We run this like a working research team: daily stand-ups, dedicated working sessions, and a midweek review to keep the model, the data, and the writing moving together.
Mon / Thu
Stand-up plus a working session — heads-down time on modeling, data, and literature review.
Tue / Wed
Stand-up, with a midweek review on Wednesday to check progress against the milestone tracker.
Thu retro / Fri off
A short retro to close the week, with Friday kept clear for independent work.
Want to follow the project or get involved?
We'll post data visualizations and findings here as Milestones 2 and 3 wrap up. In the meantime, reach out if you'd like to advise, partner, or fund the work.